About

About

Ergodic Analytics is an independent, non-commercial project publishing public-data analysis of Australia's electricity and gas markets. Every dashboard on this site is built from data AEMO publishes openly — NEMweb for electricity, the Gas Bulletin Board for gas — and is designed to be explicit about what it does and doesn't know.

The name

An ergodic system is one where a single long-run trajectory reveals the same statistics as averaging across many possible trajectories — an assumption that sits quietly beneath a great deal of quantitative market modelling, and one that becomes interestingly fragile in a market shaped by price spikes, structural breaks, and the rapid entry of storage and renewables. It felt like the right name for a project built on taking that assumption seriously, rather than for granted.

Approach

The work published here comes out of a quantitative modelling background applied to electricity and gas markets. The methods across these dashboards are deliberately transparent ones: linear-programming dispatch optimisation for storage, value-factor and capture-rate analysis for wind and solar, empirical frequency analysis of price spikes and negative pricing, and counterfactual look-backs that ask what a different operating decision would have earned. Where a forward view is shown, it is built on AEMO's own published price forecasts rather than an in-house price model.

Two things follow from that choice. Results are reproducible — anyone with the same public files and the stated method should be able to arrive at the same numbers. And the limits are visible: each dashboard states its assumptions, its exclusions, and the cases where a figure should not be read at all.

Methodology notes sit alongside every dashboard, so the analysis can be judged on the method and the data rather than on any claim about who produced it.

What this is not

These dashboards are analysis and benchmarking, not investment, trading, or operational advice. Modelled results — optimal battery schedules, curtailment scorecards, forgone-revenue figures — are benchmark or best-case constructions under stated assumptions, generally computed with hindsight or perfect foresight, and are not achievable trading outcomes. See the disclaimer for the full position.

Data and independence

The market data used across these dashboards comes from AEMO's publicly available datasets. Ergodic Analytics is independent and unofficial — it has no affiliation with AEMO, the AEMC, any generator, retailer, or other market participant, and no proprietary or confidential data of any kind is used anywhere on this site. Figures published here are derived calculations, not official market data.

This site is a personal project, published free of charge. It offers no products or services, sells nothing, and generates no revenue.

Get in touch

Questions about a dashboard's methodology or a correction are welcome — the contact details on the homepage are the way to reach me.