AEMO's own per-farm availability forecast (UIGF) minus what each farm actually generated · Dec 2025 – Aug 2026
For every semi-scheduled wind and solar unit, AEMO publishes an unconstrained intermittent generation forecast (UIGF) for each 5-minute dispatch interval — a weather-driven estimate of what the farm could have produced. Subtracting metered SCADA output gives energy that was available and not generated.
This is gross curtailment. UIGF is not capped by the farm's bid, so the figure covers energy withdrawn for commercial reasons as well as energy the network refused. It is not comparable with network-only curtailment figures.
Days a farm did not run at all are excluded — that is plant unavailability, not curtailment. Days a farm ran at a stable fraction of its forecast are flagged as likely derates and reported separately, since a proportional shortfall suggests part of the plant was out. A per-unit threshold of max(1 MW, 2% of peak forecast) suppresses ordinary forecast error; because intervals where a farm outgenerated its forecast are not netted off, the remaining figure is an upper bound.
Computed each build from AEMO's previous-day per-unit forecast against metered output. 188 farms.
Share of forecast-available energy not generated. Dashed line = the same figure with likely-derate days removed; the gap is how much rests on that classification.
Curtailed energy by technology, and each technology’s own curtailment rate. Solar dominates the volume in summer; wind carries the overnight and shoulder hours. The two labels are each measured against that technology’s own available energy, so they do not add to the fleet rate above — that figure is the energy-weighted average of the two, and sits between them. Bar heights (GWh) do add, up to any farms whose technology is unmapped. Incomplete months are hatched here too.
MWh curtailed per half-hour slot. The midday peak is the solar signature — every farm generates at once, prices fall, and network limits bind.
Share of each region's forecast-available wind and solar energy that was not generated, over the whole period.
Pick up to four farms. Filter by name, technology or region, then click to add or remove. Comparison is over the whole period shown in the header.
Totals over the period. Curtailed % is the share of each farm's own forecast-available energy.
Each farm's own rate, so a small farm and a large one are directly comparable.
Share of that farm's total curtailment falling in each half-hour. Normalised, so the shapes compare regardless of farm size.
Top 60 by energy curtailed. Click a column to sort. Tags mark units whose behaviour was classified: an export cap, a farm cut to zero rather than trimmed, or a suspected partial outage.
| DUID | Tech | Region | Available MWh | Curtailed MWh | Curtailed % |
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